* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 102 93 85 71 66 58 54 45 37 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 107 102 93 85 71 66 58 54 45 37 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 107 98 90 81 63 49 40 35 31 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 22 21 26 30 26 11 17 8 21 27 36 52 69 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 13 13 12 5 4 -2 2 3 16 11 8 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 235 247 249 254 247 307 327 261 215 195 192 229 284 306 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.2 25.7 25.6 24.5 23.5 21.3 18.6 16.0 14.0 14.8 14.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 151 144 141 139 122 120 108 100 78 66 66 69 66 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -52.8 -54.0 -50.6 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 59 55 51 52 56 55 53 42 32 27 21 34 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 36 35 35 35 31 27 24 23 23 18 12 10 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 84 90 85 110 129 104 95 92 45 8 -47 -33 94 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 178 150 110 90 8 0 0 29 41 66 58 26 -21 -54 -95 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 34 40 44 49 31 9 6 2 -21 39 19 -11 -66 -50 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1142 1039 954 877 841 952 1108 1228 1382 1662 1670 1286 1016 246 351 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.9 20.3 22.0 23.7 27.1 29.5 31.3 33.7 37.0 40.7 44.7 48.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.1 169.7 169.3 168.8 168.2 167.7 167.4 166.8 165.0 162.2 158.6 154.4 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 18 17 15 11 12 17 22 24 25 38 24 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 33 20 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -23. -34. -44. -53. -63. -71. -77. -82. -89. -92. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -16. -12. -9. -9. -12. -17. -26. -41. -56. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -13. -15. -15. -21. -25. -25. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -22. -30. -44. -49. -57. -61. -70. -78. -97.-117.-140.-163.-173.-179. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.4 170.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##