* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 74 78 86 91 89 82 75 69 59 55 52 52 49 44 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 74 78 86 91 89 82 75 69 59 55 52 52 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 72 77 85 82 74 68 65 61 56 54 53 54 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 4 8 13 10 15 5 4 15 12 7 10 12 22 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 1 1 2 -5 -1 2 1 7 0 3 5 11 9 SHEAR DIR 217 205 202 217 231 209 188 124 21 36 357 14 343 293 273 288 276 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.7 25.3 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 119 119 121 119 111 106 107 101 99 99 98 97 98 103 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 98 99 102 101 95 90 89 85 84 84 83 83 84 89 87 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -55.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.8 -54.2 -55.6 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 41 40 43 44 46 55 55 54 46 45 46 45 46 43 30 23 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 37 39 40 43 45 42 39 37 37 34 34 34 36 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR 143 141 142 138 143 143 133 114 96 57 31 3 -29 35 66 64 -40 200 MB DIV 1 6 24 31 36 68 18 28 8 12 30 -23 16 9 13 -44 -71 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 2 8 5 3 1 13 13 0 9 12 -2 -63 -116 LAND (KM) 1576 1550 1523 1542 1561 1540 1368 1196 1089 1078 1100 1104 1135 1175 1277 1429 1610 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.9 31.4 33.2 35.0 36.2 36.7 36.8 36.8 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 56.8 56.9 57.0 57.0 57.0 56.9 56.7 56.1 55.0 53.6 52.0 50.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 3 5 8 9 8 6 5 6 7 7 8 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 16 17 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 6. 2. -1. -2. -8. -8. -9. -6. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 31. 29. 22. 15. 10. -1. -5. -8. -8. -11. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.8 56.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.2% 10.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 10( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 68 74 78 86 91 89 82 75 69 59 55 52 52 49 44 18HR AGO 60 59 63 69 73 81 86 84 77 70 64 54 50 47 47 44 39 12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 66 74 79 77 70 63 57 47 43 40 40 37 32 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 62 67 65 58 51 45 35 31 28 28 25 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT