* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 121 114 108 93 83 83 77 65 62 53 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 125 121 114 108 93 83 83 77 65 62 53 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 124 118 112 103 85 66 52 45 39 36 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 14 20 23 31 19 6 14 9 8 18 23 57 59 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 4 10 12 6 -2 0 0 8 19 15 16 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 254 241 250 250 252 231 258 328 310 263 179 182 227 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.8 27.8 26.6 26.1 25.9 24.7 24.1 23.0 20.9 16.7 13.2 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 155 145 132 126 122 110 105 96 75 70 69 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -51.3 -52.1 -52.2 -53.1 -50.6 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.0 2.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 65 60 51 56 59 59 52 39 28 24 29 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 36 37 35 37 40 37 33 30 26 26 24 18 13 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 80 78 96 125 150 118 82 88 50 -11 -97 -21 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 133 152 142 148 157 37 40 27 36 47 66 45 34 -9 -38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 16 17 31 46 62 35 6 9 12 34 18 -6 -87 -69 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1279 1194 1118 1013 929 830 946 1111 1198 1251 1445 1853 1436 750 410 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.3 17.5 19.0 20.5 24.0 27.0 29.2 30.9 32.4 35.0 38.9 43.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.1 170.0 169.9 169.5 169.1 168.0 167.7 167.8 166.9 165.0 162.3 159.0 154.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 15 17 16 13 10 10 14 21 26 40 36 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 65 63 37 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -29. -40. -51. -61. -70. -78. -84. -89. -95. -99.-103. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -18. -11. -7. -4. -3. -4. -7. -18. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -10. -9. -11. -17. -21. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -16. -22. -37. -47. -47. -53. -65. -68. -77. -94.-118.-140.-146.-150. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.1 170.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.4 -30.0 to 145.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##