* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 70 78 86 88 84 80 76 68 64 60 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 70 78 86 88 84 80 76 68 64 60 59 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 71 79 83 78 70 66 63 59 56 54 54 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 10 11 14 17 15 5 5 8 1 3 17 21 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 1 -4 0 -4 1 -5 -1 3 11 4 1 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 237 237 228 204 212 227 203 180 118 337 53 89 125 238 248 264 283 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.1 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 117 115 117 119 114 108 106 102 100 99 99 98 97 95 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 97 95 96 99 97 92 89 85 83 83 84 83 83 82 87 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.0 -55.8 -55.7 -55.6 -54.4 -54.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.4 1.2 0.7 1.7 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 42 44 46 54 53 50 43 43 43 40 42 39 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 34 35 37 39 43 44 40 39 39 35 35 34 35 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 153 144 143 140 137 136 126 104 99 69 46 27 9 22 61 89 106 200 MB DIV 0 12 1 8 14 46 53 15 38 15 5 28 9 23 23 -1 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 0 0 2 9 8 2 1 7 12 11 0 -16 -23 -24 LAND (KM) 1608 1641 1632 1614 1596 1612 1483 1319 1172 1097 1079 1078 1102 1147 1242 1347 1477 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 30.8 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.8 32.2 33.9 35.4 36.4 37.0 37.0 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.1 56.4 56.5 56.7 56.7 56.5 56.5 56.1 55.3 54.2 52.8 51.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 2 5 8 8 6 6 5 6 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 6 9 10 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 6. 3. 2. -3. -5. -7. -5. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 31. 33. 29. 25. 21. 13. 9. 5. 4. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.2 55.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.8% 9.8% 7.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.1% 4.1% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 66 70 78 86 88 84 80 76 68 64 60 59 59 58 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 65 73 81 83 79 75 71 63 59 55 54 54 53 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 66 74 76 72 68 64 56 52 48 47 47 46 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 57 65 67 63 59 55 47 43 39 38 38 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT