* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 10/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 31 31 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 29 31 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 31 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 34 37 44 52 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 240 236 229 227 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 22.6 29.5 29.8 29.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 89 161 165 163 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 5 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 51 52 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 12 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 -22 -13 -20 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 34 40 45 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 2 5 6 -2 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 -8 14 -72 -231 -557 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.6 30.8 32.2 33.5 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 115.2 114.6 114.1 113.5 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 22 33 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. -3. -18. -39. -59. -73. -79. -83. -88. -96.-110.-118. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -4. -4. -1. -8. -20. -37. -53. -66. -73. -77. -86. -95.-108.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.3 115.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 10/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 10/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##