* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 71 77 83 89 95 102 104 104 98 93 86 80 77 74 73 V (KT) LAND 60 64 71 77 83 89 95 102 104 104 98 93 86 80 77 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 71 75 81 87 95 97 97 92 84 76 69 66 64 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 11 18 22 19 11 4 6 4 4 3 6 7 11 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 3 5 6 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 72 84 79 57 36 16 33 51 45 49 69 28 41 74 71 30 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 151 151 148 147 149 140 137 131 128 126 122 121 121 121 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 83 81 80 73 73 71 67 62 59 59 56 51 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 31 32 31 34 38 39 41 40 39 38 36 36 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 25 30 41 52 62 81 75 81 76 74 71 77 67 73 64 73 79 200 MB DIV 73 117 115 108 122 99 134 100 87 42 -4 15 -14 -14 -6 9 7 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -2 -6 -3 0 -2 3 7 14 3 -1 1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1067 1132 1205 1265 1320 1320 1321 1322 1328 1337 1385 1452 1532 1612 1680 1737 1796 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.7 13.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.1 17.6 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.7 114.7 116.4 117.8 119.0 120.3 121.5 122.8 124.0 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 28 27 20 13 14 8 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 9. 17. 21. 23. 21. 19. 16. 12. 11. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 17. 23. 29. 35. 42. 44. 44. 38. 33. 26. 20. 17. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.3 110.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.23 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.78 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 33.5% 24.5% 20.0% 14.4% 17.0% 13.8% 11.7% Logistic: 5.4% 17.1% 4.1% 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 4.3% 3.3% Bayesian: 3.2% 9.1% 4.9% 1.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% Consensus: 8.2% 19.9% 11.2% 8.1% 5.1% 6.7% 6.3% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##