* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 137 142 144 143 133 121 110 99 86 74 62 51 37 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 137 142 144 143 133 121 110 99 86 74 62 51 37 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 134 137 134 129 118 105 90 73 58 51 46 42 33 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 4 7 11 21 26 23 9 13 11 19 36 36 59 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 10 9 7 0 2 5 7 14 17 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 317 258 256 264 258 242 255 255 243 256 320 264 205 205 198 238 N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.9 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.2 25.2 24.0 22.4 22.2 16.5 13.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 154 151 150 155 139 135 127 126 116 105 87 89 70 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 6 5 6 5 3 2 2 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 71 72 70 61 54 56 53 59 55 45 31 24 21 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 34 38 40 41 43 43 42 36 32 29 26 25 16 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 84 79 77 81 96 109 154 175 145 84 69 51 -15 -78 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV 152 152 110 109 143 146 133 41 27 18 36 54 60 34 22 -25 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 9 11 14 22 32 37 25 4 4 27 34 22 0 -143 N/A LAND (KM) 1375 1370 1371 1335 1305 1175 993 865 892 1007 1121 1237 1543 1638 1305 990 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 17.7 20.4 23.4 26.1 28.3 30.3 32.3 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.9 169.5 170.1 170.4 170.7 170.6 169.7 168.5 167.7 167.3 166.5 164.9 162.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 13 15 15 12 11 11 17 14 26 43 42 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 43 45 52 60 70 18 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -21. -32. -41. -49. -56. -61. -65. -70. -76. -83. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -0. -3. -9. -15. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 12. 10. 6. 1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 14. 6. -0. -4. -7. -7. -16. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 12. 17. 19. 18. 8. -4. -15. -26. -39. -51. -63. -74. -88.-112.-135.-138. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 12.6 168.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 69% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 68.6% 48.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 65.8% 37.7% 39.4% 30.8% 22.3% 12.1% 3.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 76.1% 29.9% 22.8% 16.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 70.2% 38.8% 20.7% 15.9% 7.9% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##