* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 59 62 68 77 83 86 83 79 73 67 61 56 51 51 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 59 62 68 77 83 86 83 79 73 67 61 56 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 58 62 70 76 79 77 71 65 63 59 57 54 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 9 16 13 9 18 17 6 1 11 14 21 25 26 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -3 0 0 4 -3 0 2 0 0 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 237 238 253 229 196 218 223 227 170 176 28 357 352 348 325 325 313 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.6 26.2 26.5 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 106 108 113 113 113 107 106 105 103 101 101 103 103 100 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 90 91 94 92 94 91 91 88 86 85 85 87 87 85 87 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.3 -56.4 -55.4 -55.3 -54.5 -54.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 46 44 44 43 42 45 51 55 60 59 52 50 54 56 56 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 35 36 36 39 42 45 44 41 39 38 36 37 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 163 146 144 148 152 147 143 129 125 95 84 47 25 -15 -9 20 67 200 MB DIV 0 -16 -13 8 25 15 56 49 71 10 26 13 6 2 -12 -1 32 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 5 3 0 3 3 11 11 9 2 -4 LAND (KM) 1474 1504 1535 1581 1618 1657 1633 1548 1412 1275 1178 1090 1059 1119 1201 1299 1420 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 32.6 32.2 31.7 31.2 30.7 31.0 32.0 33.4 34.9 36.1 36.9 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 54.8 55.2 55.4 55.7 55.9 55.8 55.5 55.1 54.6 53.8 52.6 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 0 3 6 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 10. 14. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 27. 33. 36. 33. 29. 23. 17. 11. 6. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.0 54.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 59 62 68 77 83 86 83 79 73 67 61 56 51 51 18HR AGO 50 49 52 56 59 65 74 80 83 80 76 70 64 58 53 48 48 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 59 68 74 77 74 70 64 58 52 47 42 42 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 58 64 67 64 60 54 48 42 37 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT