* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 118 127 131 137 137 129 116 102 91 76 62 51 43 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 118 127 131 137 137 129 116 102 91 76 62 51 43 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 119 127 130 130 124 115 101 85 70 59 52 48 41 30 20 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 4 4 9 17 24 29 17 14 17 17 32 31 52 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 3 10 7 0 -1 3 12 14 13 17 12 SHEAR DIR 295 308 251 250 275 274 250 261 255 235 316 294 234 210 200 217 249 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.1 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.2 23.9 23.0 19.3 13.4 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 155 152 152 151 137 133 126 124 115 103 96 70 70 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -51.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 9 7 7 6 5 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 73 72 74 67 57 52 55 51 61 50 41 33 23 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 34 33 37 38 40 41 41 40 34 31 28 29 24 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 91 90 85 80 76 86 83 107 168 161 120 106 80 46 -85 -17 3 200 MB DIV 141 134 118 92 112 177 142 95 52 2 41 51 55 46 26 -13 -18 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 9 10 17 25 41 36 18 0 18 38 21 4 -73 -104 LAND (KM) 1351 1358 1371 1354 1343 1245 1064 883 855 952 1054 1125 1277 1399 1748 848 688 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.7 14.3 16.2 18.7 21.7 24.5 27.1 29.0 30.4 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.9 168.6 169.3 169.8 170.2 170.5 169.9 168.8 168.1 167.7 167.2 166.4 164.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 11 14 15 14 12 9 11 13 22 44 40 25 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 43 44 48 67 39 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -17. -24. -29. -34. -37. -40. -44. -49. -56. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -23. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 11. 7. 3. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 2. 6. 6. 9. 13. 15. 14. 6. 1. -3. -1. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 13. 22. 26. 32. 32. 24. 11. -3. -14. -29. -43. -54. -62. -80.-102.-122. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.1 167.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.22 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.92 20.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 14.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.85 14.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.48 3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 86% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 86.5% 70.0% 67.4% 66.5% 57.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 89.0% 83.4% 86.0% 83.0% 87.0% 59.7% 21.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 91.7% 88.0% 95.4% 93.5% 78.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 89.1% 80.5% 82.9% 81.0% 74.2% 22.4% 7.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##