* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 62 68 74 81 85 84 80 78 74 70 64 60 58 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 62 68 74 81 85 84 80 78 74 70 64 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 60 63 70 74 77 77 73 69 66 64 62 59 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 17 12 10 17 11 13 17 14 8 3 2 6 12 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -3 0 0 -2 -3 1 -2 0 -2 3 6 8 7 5 1 SHEAR DIR 273 234 239 249 224 209 203 220 193 165 36 269 342 319 9 318 326 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 105 106 108 114 112 109 106 106 103 102 100 102 102 102 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 90 89 90 91 94 93 92 90 90 87 86 85 86 86 86 85 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 -55.8 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -53.9 -54.7 -54.0 -54.7 -54.2 -55.1 -54.9 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.1 1.8 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 44 44 44 47 50 55 53 52 45 48 50 49 52 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 33 33 34 36 38 40 42 43 41 40 39 37 36 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 161 156 147 145 146 155 157 151 154 126 96 77 70 47 17 5 21 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -15 -4 11 22 22 54 48 -9 26 0 17 8 -33 -21 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -5 -3 -1 -4 -2 0 2 1 3 1 1 14 17 6 12 LAND (KM) 1457 1479 1502 1541 1579 1628 1633 1603 1499 1350 1233 1101 1051 1088 1162 1263 1384 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.0 32.6 32.2 31.7 31.0 31.0 31.5 32.6 34.2 35.6 36.8 37.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.5 54.9 55.2 55.5 55.9 55.8 55.4 55.0 54.5 53.7 52.5 50.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 2 2 4 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 24. 31. 35. 34. 30. 28. 24. 20. 14. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.3 54.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.54 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.4% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.7% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 58 62 68 74 81 85 84 80 78 74 70 64 60 58 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 58 64 70 77 81 80 76 74 70 66 60 56 54 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 52 58 64 71 75 74 70 68 64 60 54 50 48 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 50 56 63 67 66 62 60 56 52 46 42 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT