* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 48 40 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 57 48 40 32 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 50 42 36 27 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 30 31 33 33 49 67 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 2 -3 -1 -2 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 221 229 243 243 248 230 230 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.0 23.4 22.8 22.0 27.8 29.9 29.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 97 90 82 143 165 162 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 2 3 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 51 51 49 49 51 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 23 21 18 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 10 10 11 0 -11 -11 14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 27 26 43 43 60 43 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 4 3 1 -2 3 7 19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 483 374 269 173 121 -8 -162 -440 -730 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.5 27.4 28.3 30.4 32.8 35.1 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.4 117.9 117.3 116.7 116.1 114.8 113.4 112.2 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 13 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -19. -35. -49. -59. -64. -69. -75. -82. -90. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -27. -30. -31. -30. -29. -26. -24. -21. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -25. -33. -42. -48. -55. -68. -81. -90. -96.-100.-108.-115.-124.-128. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.7 118.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##