* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 66 75 83 98 106 108 99 103 102 101 96 91 84 83 80 V (KT) LAND 50 57 66 75 83 98 106 108 99 103 102 101 96 91 84 83 80 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 63 70 78 95 107 106 101 100 99 99 95 88 82 80 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 19 25 27 16 12 3 3 1 6 11 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 4 1 -2 1 -3 -3 0 7 2 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 12 7 1 352 48 67 47 20 19 41 45 153 188 88 121 131 81 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 154 153 154 155 154 150 149 146 139 136 132 125 123 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.6 -51.7 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -50.7 -51.3 -50.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 80 82 82 81 78 79 73 68 61 57 55 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 23 25 26 32 35 38 34 39 40 42 42 42 39 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 15 14 18 40 66 88 67 97 86 84 74 80 80 99 85 200 MB DIV 47 55 77 76 68 106 122 126 113 127 110 90 50 22 0 48 67 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 3 8 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 690 740 803 870 942 1079 1188 1236 1231 1233 1226 1218 1251 1317 1371 1429 1472 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.8 16.7 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.9 107.0 108.1 109.2 111.3 113.2 114.9 116.5 117.9 119.1 120.2 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 32 30 33 25 33 20 13 11 6 7 7 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 6. 10. 16. 24. 21. 28. 29. 31. 28. 24. 19. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 25. 33. 48. 57. 58. 49. 53. 52. 51. 46. 41. 34. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.1 104.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.65 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 8.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.30 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.5% 51.2% 42.9% 30.6% 21.1% 38.5% 23.3% 12.9% Logistic: 34.7% 71.5% 46.2% 34.0% 16.0% 26.3% 16.5% 16.3% Bayesian: 28.7% 85.4% 70.9% 50.8% 36.5% 67.2% 34.9% 23.5% Consensus: 28.6% 69.4% 53.3% 38.5% 24.5% 44.0% 24.9% 17.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##