* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 54 63 73 85 101 108 112 107 97 88 81 73 63 54 39 19 V (KT) LAND 45 54 63 73 85 101 108 112 107 97 88 81 73 63 54 39 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 58 67 76 96 109 114 107 90 76 65 58 53 49 43 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 2 2 3 4 6 20 28 18 6 19 20 20 42 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -5 -5 -5 1 2 1 6 16 7 1 3 2 8 4 9 SHEAR DIR 272 296 302 219 272 305 270 248 256 250 218 257 325 259 241 203 182 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.5 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.6 24.4 24.6 24.2 22.2 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 164 159 158 158 153 150 142 137 128 120 104 106 108 90 68 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -49.9 -50.7 -51.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 68 70 72 73 71 63 55 54 58 58 49 44 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 25 25 29 33 34 37 38 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 78 82 84 82 74 65 88 106 134 167 118 92 97 69 57 14 200 MB DIV 107 99 97 105 90 136 117 166 130 68 28 44 34 32 45 77 77 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 2 4 8 14 20 47 71 -21 -13 3 -9 6 -19 -35 LAND (KM) 1116 1187 1230 1259 1296 1308 1243 1135 973 835 895 1081 1212 1265 1174 1538 1501 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.5 15.0 17.0 19.6 22.8 26.0 28.9 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.0 164.3 165.6 166.6 167.6 169.0 169.6 169.8 169.3 168.3 167.8 167.7 167.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 8 9 11 15 16 16 13 4 4 20 29 34 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 51 54 49 47 61 67 22 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -13. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 20. 23. 24. 23. 22. 20. 18. 16. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 28. 40. 56. 63. 67. 62. 52. 43. 36. 28. 18. 9. -6. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.7 163.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 22.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 13.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 17.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.74 15.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -14.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 11.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.97 14.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.49 4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 6.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 13.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 80% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.6% 100.0% 93.4% 84.0% 67.6% 100.0% 100.0% 79.7% Logistic: 83.0% 95.6% 95.1% 93.1% 96.9% 95.0% 82.4% 27.3% Bayesian: 65.4% 96.4% 97.2% 96.8% 98.1% 95.8% 94.7% 60.2% Consensus: 65.7% 97.4% 95.2% 91.3% 87.5% 96.9% 92.4% 55.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##