* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 82 76 67 51 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 82 76 67 51 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 88 82 74 66 50 36 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 19 20 24 32 41 47 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 0 0 3 -7 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 214 211 221 220 231 244 241 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.3 24.7 24.1 24.2 23.4 21.4 28.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 116 110 104 105 97 77 151 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 57 55 48 49 54 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 30 30 29 24 19 13 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 21 25 23 24 15 10 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 95 76 42 31 15 32 54 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 9 4 6 6 -1 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 786 728 652 558 461 258 89 -10 -300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.8 26.7 29.0 31.6 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.7 118.7 118.7 118.5 118.2 117.3 116.2 114.9 113.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -29. -30. -34. -37. -40. -42. -45. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -24. -29. -34. -38. -42. -46. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -22. -34. -35. -34. -32. -29. -26. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -14. -23. -39. -55. -69. -85. -92. -98.-102.-106.-110.-114.-118.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 20.9 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##