* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 47 47 50 55 57 64 68 73 74 73 68 66 67 65 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 47 47 50 55 57 64 68 73 74 73 68 66 67 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 49 52 57 61 68 75 78 77 74 70 68 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 32 31 28 26 12 16 15 14 13 11 5 2 3 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 -4 -6 -2 -2 -2 0 4 0 3 9 SHEAR DIR 15 3 359 352 339 300 253 245 200 195 162 181 63 2 302 302 317 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.2 25.0 24.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 103 104 105 109 111 110 112 112 114 113 111 106 105 101 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 88 87 87 87 90 91 91 92 91 94 95 93 90 89 85 81 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -56.6 -55.5 -55.6 -56.3 -55.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -54.8 -54.4 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 1.1 2.2 1.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 3 1 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 52 52 52 53 51 45 45 48 55 55 54 48 39 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 26 28 32 32 35 37 40 40 40 38 38 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 156 154 160 160 156 154 170 160 168 172 165 164 143 100 89 91 75 200 MB DIV -8 -2 -2 -3 0 6 27 13 64 13 45 4 3 3 52 10 5 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 0 3 11 11 15 5 -13 LAND (KM) 1399 1428 1458 1479 1500 1516 1539 1585 1615 1642 1599 1510 1391 1278 1123 996 905 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 33.9 33.6 33.4 33.2 32.9 32.5 31.9 31.5 31.2 31.6 32.5 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.1 51.6 52.1 52.6 53.0 53.6 54.1 54.6 55.0 55.2 55.2 55.0 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 0 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 1 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 10. 7. 4. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 10. 12. 19. 23. 28. 29. 28. 23. 21. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.2 51.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 47 47 47 50 55 57 64 68 73 74 73 68 66 67 65 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 47 52 54 61 65 70 71 70 65 63 64 62 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 44 49 51 58 62 67 68 67 62 60 61 59 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 43 45 52 56 61 62 61 56 54 55 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT