* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 75 72 69 58 48 35 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 79 75 72 69 58 48 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 78 73 68 63 52 41 29 23 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 8 13 22 30 35 48 57 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 4 4 -1 -4 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 249 224 202 217 222 229 238 234 220 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.3 23.7 22.4 27.7 29.6 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 128 124 119 114 106 100 87 144 164 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 61 60 57 50 50 54 63 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 36 36 34 30 24 15 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 16 26 38 21 1 -6 0 37 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 69 103 108 61 7 25 40 56 101 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 5 6 6 8 -6 -4 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 896 842 795 739 687 512 304 141 -25 -330 -747 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.5 22.4 24.2 26.1 28.1 30.8 34.3 37.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.3 118.5 118.6 118.6 118.2 117.4 116.4 115.0 113.0 111.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 13 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -27. -27. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -22. -36. -39. -43. -48. -52. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -12. -26. -39. -38. -36. -33. -30. -27. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -16. -27. -37. -50. -68. -85. -96. -98.-101.-104.-108.-112.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.8 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##