* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 39 38 31 28 26 24 23 22 24 26 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 39 38 31 28 26 24 23 22 24 26 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 37 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 33 32 27 30 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 270 273 266 252 250 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 152 152 154 156 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 151 150 151 153 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 66 68 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 11 12 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 -8 6 17 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 58 59 91 94 47 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 -8 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 389 422 397 327 282 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 62.0 63.1 64.3 65.4 67.7 70.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 42 50 48 52 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -26. -26. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -21. -19. -18. -18. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.9 60.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/28/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 40 39 38 31 28 26 24 23 22 24 26 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 45 44 41 40 39 32 29 27 25 24 23 25 27 28 28 28 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 32 29 27 25 24 23 25 27 28 28 28 29 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 27 24 22 20 19 18 20 22 23 23 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT