* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 114 118 120 118 111 102 94 84 70 57 40 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 114 118 120 118 111 102 94 84 70 57 40 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 113 116 114 110 101 91 82 71 56 44 31 25 25 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 3 3 5 3 8 8 12 25 27 35 49 61 61 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -3 -7 -5 -7 -3 -1 5 0 4 5 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 104 24 16 35 67 184 192 216 221 231 224 222 214 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.6 26.6 26.0 24.8 24.3 23.3 21.5 30.5 30.1 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 144 140 139 139 129 122 110 105 95 78 173 169 166 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -49.8 -49.7 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 5 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 66 65 61 59 56 53 48 48 49 49 55 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 29 32 33 33 33 36 35 31 28 22 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 53 55 55 57 58 47 45 57 42 33 42 55 62 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 54 39 5 6 41 44 14 23 20 57 72 86 23 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 4 0 12 5 -5 5 4 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 872 921 974 991 1001 955 871 777 635 441 230 96 52 -354 -750 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.6 20.0 21.5 23.1 24.8 26.6 28.4 30.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.3 117.0 117.6 118.1 118.7 119.0 119.0 118.7 117.9 116.9 115.7 113.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 6 8 8 9 9 10 13 16 18 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 12 8 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 35 5 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -24. -32. -39. -45. -51. -51. -50. -49. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -8. -18. -29. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 3. 3. 4. 9. 9. 3. -1. -8. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 15. 13. 6. -3. -11. -21. -35. -48. -65. -87. -93.-101.-103.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.0 115.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.08 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.83 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.78 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.36 -2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.93 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.9% 26.3% 25.3% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 75.8% 64.6% 52.7% 54.2% 52.8% 29.1% 3.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 16.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 47.6% 30.7% 26.0% 25.4% 17.7% 9.7% 1.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##