* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 39 36 34 29 23 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 39 36 34 29 23 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 38 35 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 36 37 35 29 35 30 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 6 5 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 261 269 272 265 258 261 255 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 150 152 152 154 154 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 148 149 149 150 149 147 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 65 66 67 67 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 10 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -17 -17 -5 8 9 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 58 61 45 74 56 77 59 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -6 -4 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 379 389 434 449 355 247 233 186 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.0 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.0 62.1 63.2 64.3 66.5 68.7 70.9 73.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 38 43 50 48 67 56 53 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -29. -28. -28. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -11. -16. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. -30. -28. -27. -27. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 59.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/27/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 39 36 34 29 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 35 30 24 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 31 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT