* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 39 35 32 28 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 39 35 32 28 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 38 35 29 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 29 35 37 36 35 35 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 4 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 263 265 271 270 256 264 250 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 149 152 152 154 155 154 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 148 150 149 150 151 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 67 66 68 67 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 0 -3 -11 -10 11 10 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 63 57 66 42 73 36 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 -3 0 -3 -5 -7 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 399 375 400 450 418 269 242 223 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.9 61.1 62.3 63.4 65.6 67.8 70.0 72.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 38 39 45 50 56 64 55 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -31. -30. -31. -31. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -16. -20. -21. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -24. -27. -31. -33. -35. -33. -32. -30. -30. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.6 58.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/27/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 39 35 32 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 36 33 29 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 34 30 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT