* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 84 92 98 105 111 110 104 99 91 78 61 40 21 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 78 84 92 98 105 111 110 104 99 91 78 61 40 21 21 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 78 86 92 96 102 105 105 96 85 73 59 45 30 21 21 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 9 5 6 0 4 6 12 15 27 29 42 27 18 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 0 6 -2 2 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 47 49 48 32 15 353 69 316 229 216 211 219 232 225 198 253 268 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.4 25.9 25.0 24.2 23.7 22.8 20.7 26.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 159 155 151 148 144 141 135 126 121 112 104 99 90 68 132 158 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 73 70 67 64 58 54 51 46 40 34 30 29 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 29 31 32 37 39 39 40 38 36 28 17 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 54 64 66 62 57 69 57 70 67 59 29 47 23 36 30 200 MB DIV 37 41 37 35 43 57 45 43 31 51 23 21 33 39 14 -38 -26 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 3 7 4 7 0 -11 -8 0 -4 LAND (KM) 744 756 780 815 858 929 943 937 899 842 712 557 377 216 57 -42 -124 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.4 18.1 19.0 20.2 21.6 23.0 24.5 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.7 117.9 118.9 119.5 119.9 119.7 119.2 118.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 22 18 14 13 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -19. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. -4. -9. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 13. 18. 20. 22. 20. 15. 5. -7. -17. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 22. 28. 35. 41. 40. 34. 29. 21. 8. -9. -30. -49. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.4 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.6% 40.3% 32.7% 26.4% 19.1% 22.5% 16.3% 12.0% Logistic: 17.3% 31.3% 16.9% 12.1% 7.7% 15.5% 8.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 11.3% 43.9% 19.2% 10.0% 6.5% 9.9% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 21.8% 38.5% 22.9% 16.2% 11.1% 16.0% 8.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##