* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 41 40 35 33 27 23 19 17 18 22 24 26 28 28 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 41 40 35 33 27 23 19 17 18 22 24 26 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 42 38 33 28 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 16 22 27 34 34 35 35 33 35 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 5 4 6 3 5 5 5 1 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 222 235 258 265 267 271 262 270 258 260 246 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.7 29.3 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 149 158 151 150 152 156 154 154 152 152 154 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 149 158 151 150 151 153 152 150 147 148 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 61 64 66 66 66 69 70 74 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 15 14 12 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 -6 -16 -16 -8 -2 1 6 15 21 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 70 79 61 38 58 47 65 36 64 44 71 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 1 4 0 -6 -5 -6 -1 1 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 703 676 567 465 392 400 420 289 273 227 234 252 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.4 54.8 56.2 57.5 58.8 61.1 63.5 65.8 68.1 70.4 72.7 74.9 77.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 31 42 48 41 49 59 55 57 68 85 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -24. -23. -24. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -16. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -5. -7. -13. -17. -21. -23. -22. -18. -16. -14. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.0 53.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.1% 10.5% 7.3% 4.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 15.9% 6.8% 5.9% 3.7% 7.8% 6.9% 9.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 5.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 12.6% 6.0% 4.4% 2.7% 5.6% 2.3% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/26/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 42 41 40 35 33 27 23 19 17 18 22 24 26 28 28 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 37 32 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 29 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT