* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202018 09/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 49 58 68 79 97 104 110 112 111 108 103 97 88 77 66 56 V (KT) LAND 40 49 58 68 79 97 104 110 112 111 108 103 97 88 77 66 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 48 56 66 76 97 110 115 113 108 102 93 81 69 55 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 9 9 9 6 2 1 2 4 8 15 23 33 34 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 1 2 2 -3 0 0 -1 1 4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 37 30 45 54 50 22 5 40 105 124 179 190 209 196 223 207 225 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.7 26.6 25.9 25.4 24.3 23.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 158 158 155 151 148 148 144 140 128 120 115 104 99 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 70 71 73 69 67 63 63 64 61 52 38 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 22 27 28 33 36 38 38 38 38 35 32 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 33 31 28 40 41 45 40 48 45 45 42 69 61 52 14 200 MB DIV 99 83 78 84 88 66 36 61 29 51 28 64 36 18 22 -9 8 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -5 0 -2 3 4 0 5 -30 -1 LAND (KM) 601 619 645 684 728 806 820 865 913 943 923 887 838 764 667 564 481 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.9 20.0 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.4 109.1 109.8 110.6 112.0 113.5 115.0 116.3 117.6 118.6 119.2 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 25 22 21 21 25 16 13 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 73.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 29. 32. 32. 30. 27. 22. 16. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 20. 12. 3. -3. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 28. 39. 57. 64. 70. 72. 71. 68. 63. 57. 48. 37. 26. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 107.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 TWENTY 09/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 15.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 9.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -10.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.4% 65.9% 53.3% 40.9% 24.6% 55.6% 61.7% 61.6% Logistic: 51.2% 79.6% 69.8% 58.8% 68.3% 78.5% 80.7% 49.7% Bayesian: 37.9% 81.4% 77.0% 68.0% 55.9% 74.4% 60.3% 9.1% Consensus: 39.2% 75.6% 66.7% 55.9% 49.6% 69.5% 67.6% 40.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 TWENTY 09/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##