* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 48 58 73 80 83 84 81 77 71 67 65 64 69 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 48 58 73 80 83 84 81 77 71 67 65 64 69 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 41 48 58 57 56 58 61 63 62 60 59 61 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 16 31 40 23 8 10 14 21 25 24 25 16 16 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 0 -2 5 0 -3 -6 -6 -2 -1 -2 2 3 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 316 259 245 228 219 180 80 2 13 28 27 13 2 344 284 253 234 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.4 26.1 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 114 114 112 109 109 107 113 115 113 112 111 113 119 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 101 98 97 93 91 92 90 94 94 92 90 90 93 98 98 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -57.9 -57.7 -57.4 -56.8 -55.1 -55.1 -54.7 -55.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.1 -56.4 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 55 51 47 46 43 34 39 47 53 51 48 51 58 57 54 43 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 29 36 43 41 39 37 34 33 32 32 35 38 43 50 850 MB ENV VOR 90 105 141 160 201 229 239 198 180 166 155 151 151 161 171 196 69 200 MB DIV 44 63 11 -2 26 -17 11 -32 -18 -4 9 4 10 27 57 24 23 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -1 -14 -5 33 12 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 0 -12 -63 LAND (KM) 1800 1826 1858 1841 1830 1710 1579 1486 1430 1404 1401 1390 1400 1418 1449 1476 1509 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.9 32.0 32.6 33.2 34.7 35.5 35.5 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.6 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 44.0 42.8 41.8 40.8 40.4 41.5 43.4 45.2 46.8 48.0 48.9 49.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 6 6 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 1 1 1 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 20. 19. 18. 15. 12. 10. 9. 11. 14. 19. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 28. 43. 50. 53. 54. 51. 47. 41. 37. 35. 34. 39. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.7 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.20 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.34 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.4% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 48 58 73 80 83 84 81 77 71 67 65 64 69 75 18HR AGO 30 29 35 43 53 68 75 78 79 76 72 66 62 60 59 64 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 34 44 59 66 69 70 67 63 57 53 51 50 55 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 30 45 52 55 56 53 49 43 39 37 36 41 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT