* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 32 37 44 51 54 56 55 54 54 58 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 32 37 44 51 54 56 55 54 54 58 60 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 32 34 38 40 41 40 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 12 13 12 6 7 17 17 28 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 0 -3 -2 3 -1 3 3 3 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 273 287 288 309 323 295 281 269 261 267 268 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.7 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 145 146 149 154 149 155 148 146 151 154 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 148 145 146 149 154 149 155 148 145 150 153 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 66 67 64 66 64 66 67 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 13 11 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 45 39 36 31 18 8 12 0 3 17 28 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 35 63 44 41 67 60 59 54 64 64 52 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -7 -5 -4 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1424 1392 1303 1123 963 733 611 601 450 272 259 322 390 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.4 38.6 40.8 42.8 44.9 48.6 51.7 54.5 57.0 59.2 61.4 63.7 65.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 21 20 20 16 15 13 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 16 14 13 16 30 25 30 28 40 43 61 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 24. 26. 25. 24. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 36.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.71 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.4% 9.0% 6.0% 3.2% 8.0% 10.3% 16.7% Logistic: 3.0% 22.2% 11.4% 4.8% 2.8% 9.3% 22.6% 37.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 2.4% 12.3% 6.9% 3.6% 2.0% 5.8% 11.0% 18.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/24/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/24/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 32 37 44 51 54 56 55 54 54 58 60 62 64 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 31 36 43 50 53 55 54 53 53 57 59 61 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 33 40 47 50 52 51 50 50 54 56 58 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 41 44 46 45 44 44 48 50 52 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT