* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/19/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 36 30 27 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 261 262 255 257 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 107 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 90 91 92 92 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.6 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 29 29 27 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 1 -8 -16 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -19 -24 -32 -26 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1397 1418 1439 1482 1525 1626 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.3 30.0 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. -27. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.6 27.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/19/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/19/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 28 29 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 27 29 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 27 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 25 26 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 18 19 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 16 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT