* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/17/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 35 33 31 32 31 29 27 26 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 35 33 31 32 31 29 27 26 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 36 33 32 32 34 23 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 268 267 264 263 268 266 275 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.3 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 106 102 101 103 104 106 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 91 89 87 86 88 90 92 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.9 -56.8 -56.6 -55.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 28 30 30 28 28 29 26 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -39 -46 -35 -27 -27 -16 -33 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -21 -18 -5 -11 -32 -24 -29 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1547 1482 1416 1383 1352 1376 1452 1552 1662 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.5 33.0 32.5 31.9 30.9 30.1 29.4 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.6 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -0. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.9 27.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/17/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/17/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 35 33 31 32 31 29 27 26 25 24 23 23 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 33 31 29 30 29 27 25 24 23 22 21 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 28 26 24 25 24 22 20 19 18 17 16 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 19 17 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT