* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 30 31 31 26 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 28 29 33 34 34 29 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 28 29 33 36 39 40 40 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 19 15 12 17 32 48 54 60 50 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 2 2 0 7 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 286 277 286 288 269 259 245 240 244 231 230 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.3 28.1 25.1 22.0 17.5 22.4 19.7 19.8 20.4 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 157 157 139 109 91 77 94 83 83 84 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 130 130 116 94 82 73 85 77 76 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -52.3 -53.6 -54.6 -55.1 -54.7 -55.3 -56.3 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 4 3 7 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 57 57 58 55 55 53 60 76 83 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 15 14 13 10 10 11 13 14 17 20 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 0 -28 -26 -33 -13 34 85 102 115 135 167 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 1 4 5 19 -2 30 64 83 73 105 112 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 18 13 16 15 -9 11 -7 -37 12 -63 -71 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -209 -326 -445 -495 -506 -278 3 230 303 378 518 931 1353 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.2 36.2 37.3 38.3 39.7 40.7 41.5 42.4 43.3 44.3 45.2 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.1 82.5 82.8 82.2 81.6 78.1 73.1 67.2 60.8 53.9 47.4 41.2 35.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 12 12 18 21 23 25 25 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. -3. -11. -23. -32. -39. -48. -53. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -13. -11. -11. -9. -5. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. -4. -9. -11. -15. -22. -28. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.1 82.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.7% 8.7% 6.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.1% 3.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 28 29 33 34 34 29 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 28 29 33 34 34 29 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 26 27 31 32 32 27 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 26 27 27 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT