* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 37 36 32 29 26 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 37 36 32 29 26 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 38 36 37 37 33 33 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 234 238 245 263 272 275 272 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.2 25.2 25.2 24.6 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 121 124 117 107 106 101 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 105 108 100 92 90 87 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.9 -57.0 -57.2 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 31 31 29 26 29 31 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -25 -56 -78 -88 -82 -56 -46 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -9 -4 1 0 6 -12 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -5 -8 -6 -11 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1923 1971 2027 2087 1953 1701 1509 1383 1250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.2 33.2 32.0 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.8 37.1 35.5 33.8 32.2 29.4 27.7 26.9 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 14 12 10 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -3. -10. -17. -23. -29. -33. -38. -44. -48. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.3 38.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 36 37 36 32 29 26 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 35 36 35 31 28 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 33 32 28 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT