* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 39 37 35 32 30 27 25 23 21 19 16 15 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 39 37 35 32 30 27 25 23 21 19 16 15 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 33 31 31 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 39 37 36 35 35 32 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 217 224 229 235 258 271 278 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.5 25.6 25.2 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 128 123 123 120 110 107 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 111 108 107 103 95 93 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -56.2 -56.8 -56.9 -57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 34 33 33 30 31 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 20 -13 -43 -51 -79 -72 -50 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 2 6 -7 -5 -1 0 -12 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 1 -11 -7 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1934 1938 1948 1994 2048 1974 1726 1494 1261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.3 32.8 33.3 33.7 34.1 33.7 32.9 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.7 40.4 39.2 37.6 36.0 32.7 30.0 27.7 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -18. -23. -29. -33. -36. -42. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.7 41.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 92.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 40 39 37 35 32 30 27 25 23 21 19 16 15 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 38 36 34 31 29 26 24 22 20 18 15 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 35 33 31 28 26 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 27 25 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT