* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 43 42 39 37 33 30 27 24 23 21 18 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 43 42 39 37 33 30 27 24 23 21 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 37 35 33 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 34 35 36 39 34 34 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 212 215 215 217 226 242 258 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.0 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 126 128 129 126 126 126 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 106 109 110 108 108 108 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -56.2 -56.4 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 40 42 41 37 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 135 135 119 104 58 -34 -84 -97 -90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 13 17 14 28 -12 -2 -1 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 0 1 -5 -16 -18 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1848 1861 1875 1863 1855 1840 1918 2066 1877 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.6 32.1 32.5 33.8 34.8 35.5 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 43.9 43.4 42.5 41.7 39.5 36.6 33.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 10 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 6 6 5 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -10. -18. -24. -30. -35. -40. -46. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 43 42 39 37 33 30 27 24 23 21 18 16 DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 39 36 34 30 27 24 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 33 30 28 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT