* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 52 51 50 51 50 48 44 34 40 26 22 19 16 16 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 52 51 50 51 50 48 44 34 40 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 49 47 46 44 44 45 44 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 44 47 44 46 31 24 10 11 23 41 41 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 2 0 5 0 3 2 10 16 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 222 225 228 233 236 254 223 220 198 240 263 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.3 26.9 26.1 24.5 23.2 21.5 20.3 18.3 17.3 15.7 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 131 126 117 104 95 86 82 77 76 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 117 111 103 91 84 77 73 71 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 -54.5 -53.9 -56.6 -57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 50 51 52 49 47 49 42 38 41 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 24 25 27 29 32 32 30 29 25 33 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 78 68 56 37 0 -28 -6 33 66 -78 -27 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 62 47 52 47 20 3 38 33 36 24 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 31 13 20 24 18 1 14 0 9 -24 10 196 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2111 2121 2130 2051 1984 1858 1498 1160 870 670 395 39 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 31.5 33.3 34.9 36.5 39.0 40.9 42.5 44.1 45.9 48.4 51.6 54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.2 35.7 35.2 34.3 33.5 30.7 27.0 23.3 19.8 16.5 12.3 7.4 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 17 17 17 16 15 15 17 21 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 20 CX,CY: 3/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -20. -25. -28. -32. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 3. 1. -6. 6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -7. -11. -21. -15. -29. -33. -36. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.7 36.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 52 52 51 50 51 50 48 44 34 40 28 29 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 52 52 51 50 51 50 48 44 34 40 28 29 30 30 30 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 49 50 49 47 43 33 39 27 28 29 29 29 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 43 44 43 41 37 27 33 21 22 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT