* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 48 47 47 47 48 51 51 47 43 29 25 21 18 17 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 48 47 47 47 48 51 51 47 43 29 25 21 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 47 45 43 42 42 43 45 47 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 45 43 45 49 42 35 14 14 11 26 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 4 1 0 0 4 -1 0 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 217 221 222 225 232 242 248 245 168 195 228 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.9 25.6 24.4 23.4 22.3 20.6 19.3 16.6 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 122 126 127 125 112 102 96 90 84 81 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 112 114 113 110 98 89 84 79 76 74 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -56.3 -56.1 -55.2 -55.2 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 47 47 51 50 47 46 43 40 40 37 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 32 33 31 30 28 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 80 80 57 64 21 -5 -12 0 53 32 -28 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 55 55 48 58 39 11 16 23 49 28 36 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 23 18 18 22 8 3 4 3 5 -36 23 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2092 2110 2147 2139 2077 1996 1763 1440 1103 804 575 200 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 29.3 31.0 32.7 34.3 37.1 39.0 40.4 42.0 43.7 46.3 49.7 53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.7 36.4 36.0 35.3 34.7 32.7 29.6 26.1 22.5 19.0 14.7 9.8 4.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 16 15 16 16 18 22 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 16 CX,CY: 1/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -20. -21. -24. -26. -30. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 4. 2. -2. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. -4. -8. -12. -26. -30. -34. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.6 36.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 50 48 47 47 47 48 51 51 47 43 29 25 21 18 17 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 49 49 49 50 53 53 49 45 31 27 23 20 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 48 48 49 52 52 48 44 30 26 22 19 18 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 44 44 45 48 48 44 40 26 22 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT