* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 42 39 36 35 34 33 33 32 30 29 30 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 42 39 36 35 34 33 33 32 30 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 35 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 25 25 27 35 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 232 232 229 227 232 231 238 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 127 127 126 130 130 124 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 103 103 102 108 110 105 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.9 -56.4 -56.5 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 44 44 43 48 47 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 68 94 118 134 101 2 -53 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 26 26 28 22 15 -11 -17 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -8 -4 -4 0 0 2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1628 1659 1690 1723 1755 1769 1744 1706 1703 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 33.4 33.0 32.7 32.4 32.6 33.6 35.1 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.3 44.5 44.4 44.4 43.5 41.8 39.8 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 6 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 7 6 8 7 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -6. -12. -17. -22. -25. -29. -34. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.8 44.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 39 42 42 39 36 35 34 33 33 32 30 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 41 41 38 35 34 33 32 32 31 29 28 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 37 34 31 30 29 28 28 27 25 24 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 30 27 24 23 22 21 21 20 18 17 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT