* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 88 85 79 73 68 58 49 44 40 40 41 46 45 43 V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 77 62 41 31 28 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 86 84 62 40 31 28 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 14 12 18 15 18 12 14 16 18 28 47 50 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 7 -1 3 0 2 0 1 -2 0 -1 5 2 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 235 235 234 239 258 241 263 260 268 282 287 268 257 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.8 26.7 25.8 24.5 16.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 151 154 159 161 161 165 168 165 166 121 113 103 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 122 124 127 129 129 132 134 132 134 101 95 87 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -50.0 -49.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 6 9 6 9 5 7 4 7 4 5 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 58 60 60 60 59 54 56 58 63 60 61 44 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 34 35 33 31 29 27 19 14 12 11 13 17 27 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -12 -14 -8 6 4 20 13 11 -38 -27 -12 63 88 78 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 40 16 28 15 9 26 15 1 5 28 -7 41 0 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 4 3 2 0 5 9 22 23 8 15 -6 21 -21 -91 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 99 42 -6 -46 -67 -138 -213 -311 -459 -519 -457 -307 -253 -149 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.9 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.4 35.1 36.4 37.9 39.6 41.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.6 77.3 77.8 78.4 79.3 80.3 81.4 82.2 82.7 82.1 80.3 77.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 9 12 13 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 32 22 27 31 10 4 5 5 5 5 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -26. -31. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -25. -34. -39. -41. -38. -32. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -17. -22. -32. -41. -46. -50. -50. -49. -44. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.6 76.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.31 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 13.4% 9.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 6.8% 5.3% 3.7% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 6.8% 5.1% 4.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 0( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 88 77 62 41 31 28 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 90 89 88 77 62 41 31 28 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 90 87 86 75 60 39 29 26 25 25 25 27 27 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 65 44 34 31 30 30 30 32 32 33 33 33 33 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 50 40 37 36 36 36 38 38 39 39 39 39 IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 61 51 48 47 47 47 49 49 50 50 50 50 IN 12HR 90 89 88 79 73 69 59 56 55 55 55 57 57 58 58 58 58