* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 42 44 42 38 33 29 24 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 42 44 42 38 33 29 24 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 41 42 41 39 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 29 31 30 39 41 43 37 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 250 219 232 223 232 232 231 240 260 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 127 127 126 129 131 131 127 118 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 104 103 102 106 109 111 109 102 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.8 -56.3 -56.4 -56.5 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 45 43 42 45 35 30 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 31 94 101 114 124 38 -33 -77 -97 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 28 46 18 11 12 4 -15 -19 16 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -8 -8 -8 -5 1 1 1 -10 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1643 1665 1689 1717 1746 1785 1779 1761 1801 1923 1893 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.6 33.2 32.9 32.6 32.4 33.0 34.2 35.4 36.6 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.4 43.7 44.0 44.1 44.1 43.6 42.3 40.3 37.7 34.3 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 4 8 11 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -11. -18. -23. -29. -34. -38. -44. -47. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -16. -18. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.9 43.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 42 44 42 38 33 29 24 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 40 42 40 36 31 27 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 39 37 33 28 24 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT