* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 37 40 46 50 55 59 62 68 72 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 37 40 46 50 55 59 62 68 72 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 35 35 37 40 44 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 17 13 13 13 6 14 9 13 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 0 3 2 4 7 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 310 294 308 326 349 23 55 18 31 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 162 162 158 153 152 150 145 152 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 160 162 162 158 151 149 146 139 145 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 13 11 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 45 47 50 54 57 60 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 26 31 42 54 52 50 49 37 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 10 -10 4 1 12 51 24 0 11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -4 -3 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 467 481 380 325 312 326 291 318 244 189 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.5 64.0 65.5 67.0 69.8 72.2 74.4 76.4 78.3 80.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 53 52 60 53 65 68 83 43 69 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 28. 32. 37. 39. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 61.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.92 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.4% 8.8% 6.5% 3.7% 8.8% 11.8% 17.2% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.3% 2.3% 1.3% 3.1% 4.3% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 36 37 40 46 50 55 59 62 68 72 77 79 82 85 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 38 41 47 51 56 60 63 69 73 78 80 83 86 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 36 39 45 49 54 58 61 67 71 76 78 81 84 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 40 44 49 53 56 62 66 71 73 76 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT