* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 96 95 94 89 80 76 66 56 52 49 49 49 54 54 52 V (KT) LAND 95 95 96 95 82 54 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 94 92 90 53 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 9 13 14 18 14 12 17 15 21 29 40 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 2 2 -2 1 -2 2 1 2 1 1 0 5 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 176 209 231 240 236 234 272 260 293 275 280 278 268 255 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.7 28.2 26.6 24.2 20.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 153 151 154 161 159 163 167 168 163 140 121 101 81 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 125 122 123 128 127 130 134 134 133 116 101 86 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.5 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.2 -49.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 6 9 6 8 4 7 4 8 4 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 56 59 58 58 56 55 55 60 52 54 46 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 35 35 33 29 27 21 15 13 12 14 17 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -29 -16 -16 -12 7 9 22 18 4 -25 -32 20 72 58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 50 43 20 22 -2 15 28 -9 4 7 15 1 9 -39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 10 5 6 3 0 1 11 13 16 16 20 1 -2 -89 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 226 154 95 53 -2 -38 -81 -135 -222 -328 -453 -499 -390 -212 -176 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.5 33.9 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.0 34.4 35.1 36.5 38.5 40.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 75.9 76.6 77.2 77.8 78.7 79.6 80.6 81.7 82.6 82.5 81.4 79.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 9 12 13 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 49 32 23 27 27 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -30. -35. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. -2. -8. -11. -21. -31. -35. -38. -34. -30. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. -0. -1. -6. -15. -19. -29. -39. -43. -46. -46. -46. -41. -41. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 33.1 75.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 667.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 14.8% 11.5% 6.9% 4.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 9.4% 3.9% 2.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 0( 33) 0( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 96 95 82 54 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 95 94 95 94 81 53 36 29 27 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 77 49 32 25 23 22 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 72 44 27 20 18 17 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 48 31 24 22 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 24 IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 63 46 39 37 36 36 37 38 39 39 39 39 IN 12HR 95 95 96 87 81 77 60 53 51 50 50 51 52 53 53 53 53