* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 28 29 30 30 29 27 23 19 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 28 29 30 30 29 27 23 19 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 23 22 21 21 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 34 36 38 39 39 32 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 272 279 284 274 276 265 281 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 149 151 151 148 149 150 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.5 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 28 32 31 33 36 40 45 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 39 35 42 40 36 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -26 -22 -12 -15 14 10 10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -8 -6 -3 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 244 362 477 604 849 1081 1315 1555 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.8 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.8 161.3 162.8 164.2 165.5 168.1 170.5 172.9 175.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 45 43 36 28 25 26 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -22. -29. -35. -37. -38. -39. -40. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -19. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.1 159.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##