* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 43 44 42 39 32 28 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 43 44 42 39 32 28 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 42 42 41 38 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 20 28 32 35 47 47 43 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 0 0 -2 -3 1 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 277 246 218 223 223 227 225 234 243 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.5 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 127 127 126 128 130 131 128 120 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 103 102 102 104 108 111 110 104 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 -55.9 -56.1 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 45 46 46 41 44 40 33 32 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 48 101 102 126 98 5 -52 -81 -77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 20 23 38 19 21 5 -4 -24 -9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -6 -11 -6 -5 -4 -1 -14 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1655 1674 1694 1714 1733 1761 1776 1773 1794 1878 1991 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 33.7 33.3 33.1 32.8 32.6 32.9 33.8 35.0 36.4 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.3 43.6 43.8 43.9 43.7 42.6 40.8 38.4 35.2 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 3 7 10 13 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -10. -18. -25. -33. -37. -42. -48. -52. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -8. -12. -18. -20. -22. -26. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.0 42.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 42 43 44 42 39 32 28 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 41 42 40 37 30 26 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 38 36 33 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 30 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT