* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 33 34 37 41 45 48 51 56 61 67 72 73 75 79 V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 33 34 37 41 45 48 51 56 61 67 72 73 75 79 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 34 32 31 30 31 33 36 39 43 50 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 18 14 14 8 11 15 10 16 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 0 0 7 4 4 5 1 -1 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 305 315 302 312 360 355 25 17 18 12 15 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.6 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 160 160 160 158 152 152 148 147 150 146 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 157 160 160 160 158 149 148 143 140 145 140 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 45 44 46 50 54 58 61 62 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 13 19 20 31 45 45 43 39 32 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 9 3 -24 -14 -10 7 33 3 25 6 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -7 -9 -4 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 554 510 514 389 297 274 246 262 267 178 162 297 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.8 60.3 61.9 63.4 64.9 67.8 70.4 72.7 74.8 76.6 78.7 80.9 83.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 58 62 44 59 62 66 75 84 50 65 47 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -6. -3. 1. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 27. 32. 33. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.3 58.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.90 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.0% 7.3% 5.7% 3.0% 7.8% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 2.8% 3.5% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 34 33 34 37 41 45 48 51 56 61 67 72 73 75 79 18HR AGO 40 39 36 35 36 39 43 47 50 53 58 63 69 74 75 77 81 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 36 39 43 47 50 53 58 63 69 74 75 77 81 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 38 42 45 48 53 58 64 69 70 72 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT