* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 49 46 44 40 39 38 37 39 42 40 33 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 49 46 44 40 39 38 37 39 42 40 31 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 60 55 52 49 46 45 42 41 40 42 47 49 35 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 37 40 42 44 44 48 39 28 14 15 20 33 34 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 4 2 5 3 2 -1 5 0 8 11 12 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 211 209 208 217 221 232 233 256 248 217 193 202 217 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.4 26.9 26.9 25.1 23.6 21.8 20.3 18.2 14.7 13.2 8.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 111 113 118 120 126 126 108 98 89 83 79 74 73 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 101 103 108 109 113 111 95 86 79 76 73 71 70 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -54.7 -55.9 -56.0 -56.5 -55.6 -54.6 -54.3 -55.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 40 44 44 48 52 49 47 46 48 48 53 50 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 27 26 25 27 28 31 32 31 31 34 35 35 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 54 85 82 73 48 10 -11 -19 17 46 40 15 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 40 41 66 53 56 57 46 1 26 34 66 41 66 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 13 6 14 23 16 20 0 9 11 15 -8 -14 -32 85 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2095 2105 2122 2131 2154 2173 2008 1965 1654 1284 922 637 57 -51 232 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 24.3 25.6 27.2 28.8 32.2 35.4 38.3 40.6 42.4 44.5 47.3 51.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.2 37.0 36.1 34.4 32.0 28.8 24.8 20.4 15.6 10.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 16 17 17 18 17 17 18 20 24 29 31 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -27. -26. -25. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 1. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -25. -26. -27. -28. -26. -23. -25. -32. -48. -52. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.9 37.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 486.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 59 54 49 46 44 40 39 38 37 39 42 40 31 20 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 59 54 51 49 45 44 43 42 44 47 45 36 25 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 53 51 47 46 45 44 46 49 47 38 27 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 50 46 45 44 43 45 48 46 37 26 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT