* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 58 53 49 45 41 37 37 39 39 40 34 27 28 25 24 V (KT) LAND 70 64 58 53 49 45 41 37 37 39 39 40 34 27 28 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 70 64 60 56 53 49 46 43 42 42 43 44 45 47 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 28 34 38 41 41 46 41 35 23 20 13 29 30 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 7 5 7 4 3 2 -6 4 3 2 8 14 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 214 212 205 208 221 229 235 250 256 238 212 197 219 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.8 25.0 25.4 26.1 26.9 27.0 25.6 24.0 22.6 20.5 19.0 16.1 14.6 13.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 107 110 117 126 127 113 101 93 84 79 73 71 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 98 101 107 113 112 99 88 82 76 73 69 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.5 -55.2 -56.4 -56.2 -55.4 -53.6 -52.7 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 43 43 45 45 52 56 50 53 50 47 46 47 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 26 27 27 27 28 27 29 31 30 30 27 26 31 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 50 48 52 82 79 66 43 2 -16 -6 39 84 83 191 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 45 33 43 64 39 54 52 19 14 46 52 56 84 64 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 24 12 4 18 19 31 26 9 17 18 18 -36 30 152 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2050 2060 2081 2083 2099 2125 2109 1989 1762 1383 1014 729 361 114 174 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.2 24.5 26.0 27.5 30.7 34.0 37.2 39.8 41.9 44.1 46.4 49.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.8 36.9 37.1 36.9 36.8 35.9 34.6 32.7 29.8 25.9 21.6 17.0 13.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 20 19 19 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. -34. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -22. -25. -27. -27. -25. -23. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -33. -33. -31. -31. -30. -36. -43. -42. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.9 36.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 540.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 64 58 53 49 45 41 37 37 39 39 40 34 27 28 25 24 18HR AGO 70 69 63 58 54 50 46 42 42 44 44 45 39 32 33 30 29 12HR AGO 70 67 66 61 57 53 49 45 45 47 47 48 42 35 36 33 32 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 52 48 44 44 46 46 47 41 34 35 32 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT