* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 71 64 59 49 40 34 31 34 33 31 29 24 18 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 71 64 59 49 40 34 31 34 33 31 29 24 18 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 71 66 62 56 50 46 44 44 44 44 46 47 47 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 30 39 40 47 43 46 37 29 17 15 28 47 37 43 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 9 8 2 2 2 9 1 -1 -2 4 3 0 4 13 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 222 222 214 211 205 220 224 232 237 273 245 237 219 197 213 250 244 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 24.8 25.1 25.4 26.5 26.9 26.8 24.9 23.3 20.9 19.0 16.7 14.9 13.5 11.9 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 105 107 110 121 126 125 107 96 85 79 74 71 70 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 96 98 101 110 113 109 94 85 77 73 69 68 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.9 -54.7 -56.5 -56.9 -56.4 -55.8 -53.7 -53.3 -54.5 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.4 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -0.6 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 46 46 44 43 46 49 52 53 49 50 49 44 49 50 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 26 27 26 25 23 24 28 27 25 24 23 21 26 15 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 51 41 48 81 89 56 18 -38 -37 4 35 40 64 75 16 200 MB DIV 104 98 35 26 43 54 63 52 23 9 18 34 41 39 88 77 63 700-850 TADV 16 22 21 16 8 28 34 35 9 19 26 20 0 -52 52 115 107 LAND (KM) 2035 2060 2086 2091 2107 2139 2150 2009 1905 1538 1183 904 517 158 178 295 615 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 22.0 23.2 24.6 25.9 29.2 32.6 35.9 38.7 41.2 43.6 46.2 49.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.6 36.9 37.2 37.2 37.2 36.7 35.5 33.8 31.2 27.6 23.7 19.6 15.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 15 17 18 17 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -30. -35. -40. -46. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -14. -22. -26. -29. -30. -30. -26. -24. -23. -26. -28. -31. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -13. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -16. -21. -31. -40. -46. -49. -46. -47. -49. -51. -56. -62. -60. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.8 36.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 632.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 71 64 59 49 40 34 31 34 33 31 29 24 18 20 DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 73 66 61 51 42 36 33 36 35 33 31 26 20 22 DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 69 64 54 45 39 36 39 38 36 34 29 23 25 DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 55 46 40 37 40 39 37 35 30 24 26 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT