* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 41 41 43 44 47 50 53 58 63 67 69 71 74 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 41 41 43 44 47 50 53 58 63 67 69 71 74 V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 43 41 38 36 35 36 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 24 28 28 20 17 8 17 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 1 1 4 1 1 4 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 313 301 302 309 318 339 349 360 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.8 29.9 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 148 153 157 168 169 159 152 152 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 148 153 157 168 169 159 150 149 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 13 12 13 11 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 49 49 47 50 53 59 64 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 11 1 -1 6 15 24 25 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -6 -20 -12 -9 -4 0 -32 -8 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -11 -9 -6 -11 -3 -4 0 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 912 788 675 583 522 478 292 302 261 309 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.6 55.0 56.4 57.8 59.3 62.4 65.5 68.4 70.9 73.1 75.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 19 25 33 45 42 68 60 69 82 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -6. -3. -0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 53.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.6% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 7.9% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 45 43 41 41 43 44 47 50 53 58 63 67 69 71 74 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 43 43 45 46 49 52 55 60 65 69 71 73 76 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 42 42 44 45 48 51 54 59 64 68 70 72 75 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 38 40 41 44 47 50 55 60 64 66 68 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT