* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 0 5 8 16 29 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 8 7 7 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 25 295 235 211 219 230 238 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 100 99 101 104 104 104 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 31 32 32 32 37 39 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 54 47 44 40 32 23 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -15 5 1 -10 13 6 14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 1 0 0 -2 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1354 1430 1508 1571 1634 1706 1751 1794 1837 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.5 22.3 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.9 128.8 129.5 130.2 131.2 131.8 132.2 132.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. -0. -8. -13. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -27. -37. -41. -44. -47. -50. -54. -57. -61. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 127.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##