* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 32 30 28 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 32 30 28 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 30 28 25 23 21 19 17 16 16 16 16 18 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 32 35 35 34 38 42 39 34 30 28 21 31 32 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 5 6 3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -9 -7 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 272 272 274 277 277 287 285 284 286 298 298 318 303 299 290 301 304 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 29.1 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 140 142 144 145 147 148 147 149 152 151 155 148 147 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 28 30 31 31 32 34 34 40 46 53 54 54 48 46 45 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 49 45 51 54 58 62 53 40 26 17 19 18 19 24 33 200 MB DIV -29 -38 -29 -6 -21 -2 -6 -23 -7 0 -13 -21 -28 -14 -15 -34 -38 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -1 -2 -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 -4 -4 -6 -3 -8 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 138 38 68 162 247 369 577 775 959 1132 1304 1459 1651 1844 1998 2102 2214 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 20.5 20.1 19.8 19.5 19.1 19.0 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.3 155.6 156.8 158.2 159.5 162.3 164.9 167.1 169.1 170.9 172.7 174.3 176.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 15 32 33 33 40 28 22 21 24 31 34 24 30 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -25. -32. -36. -38. -38. -38. -39. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -20. -27. -31. -35. -37. -34. -33. -31. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 154.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##