* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 69 63 58 49 39 29 23 25 24 29 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 69 63 58 49 39 29 23 25 24 29 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 74 68 63 58 52 46 40 36 35 36 37 38 38 39 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 23 29 38 44 45 48 42 33 34 43 47 43 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 13 7 6 6 5 7 2 -1 0 4 -2 0 13 24 11 SHEAR DIR 244 238 222 216 213 208 221 225 231 235 252 257 273 243 217 178 171 SST (C) 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.8 25.2 26.4 26.9 26.9 24.9 23.0 21.3 18.4 16.2 14.4 13.4 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 105 105 105 108 120 126 126 107 95 87 78 74 72 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 96 97 96 99 110 114 112 94 84 78 73 70 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.9 -55.2 -56.9 -57.3 -56.2 -53.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 56 50 45 45 40 44 47 55 49 48 50 54 62 70 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 29 28 27 25 22 20 22 22 25 23 22 19 20 12 850 MB ENV VOR 52 63 56 48 40 29 66 80 75 7 -37 -51 -2 53 84 144 2 200 MB DIV 66 91 113 61 13 22 51 37 55 13 2 -5 36 47 85 114 75 700-850 TADV 12 16 12 19 16 13 21 31 31 4 5 3 64 54 -28 -143 -59 LAND (KM) 1961 1997 2037 2067 2098 2130 2158 2173 1992 1920 1622 1270 923 420 74 60 255 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.6 22.7 25.4 28.6 32.2 35.6 39.0 41.8 44.2 46.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.6 36.1 36.6 36.9 37.3 37.5 37.1 36.1 34.4 32.0 28.8 24.8 20.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 13 14 17 18 19 19 19 20 22 22 21 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -33. -38. -43. -47. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -27. -27. -28. -30. -33. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -16. -19. -15. -18. -20. -23. -21. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -22. -31. -41. -51. -57. -55. -56. -51. -57. -65. -76. -81. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.7 35.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 585.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 69 63 58 49 39 29 23 25 24 29 23 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 74 68 63 54 44 34 28 30 29 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 70 65 56 46 36 30 32 31 36 30 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 56 46 36 30 32 31 36 30 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT