* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 39 38 37 34 31 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 39 38 38 35 31 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 35 37 35 34 34 35 35 36 37 39 41 46 53 61 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 29 32 35 35 35 40 35 35 29 30 21 21 18 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 4 3 4 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -6 -4 -11 SHEAR DIR 268 267 270 274 277 280 286 284 288 292 305 308 318 306 317 302 319 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.0 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 135 141 144 143 144 145 145 148 151 151 154 150 150 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 24 27 29 30 29 33 33 37 44 51 54 54 51 49 48 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 44 40 38 55 42 58 54 47 39 27 32 34 36 43 40 200 MB DIV 0 -31 -43 -27 1 -9 14 -19 4 -14 4 0 -1 -21 -6 -32 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 190 75 14 99 197 334 541 756 933 1081 1268 1478 1691 1906 2133 2360 2587 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.0 20.7 20.4 20.1 19.5 19.3 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.9 155.3 156.7 158.1 159.5 162.3 164.7 167.0 168.9 170.5 172.4 174.5 176.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 3 26 26 35 32 24 20 22 26 36 34 28 32 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 844 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -36. -36. -35. -35. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -20. -25. -28. -30. -28. -28. -26. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.2 153.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 518.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##