* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 88 81 74 64 54 41 32 27 30 32 35 34 31 26 17 V (KT) LAND 95 92 88 81 74 64 54 41 32 27 30 32 35 34 31 26 17 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 85 78 72 63 57 51 47 45 44 45 46 44 43 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 12 15 18 23 29 34 40 40 44 30 16 16 35 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 12 13 10 8 10 7 7 2 -1 0 3 0 2 10 SHEAR DIR 262 247 230 235 220 208 212 206 199 206 222 235 246 269 252 238 236 SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.8 25.0 25.5 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.2 26.6 24.6 21.8 19.2 17.1 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 105 103 105 109 109 114 118 124 129 123 106 90 81 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 98 95 97 100 99 103 106 112 115 110 95 82 75 71 68 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 4 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 72 70 66 62 58 48 42 39 40 40 43 42 42 45 54 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 35 33 31 29 28 26 24 24 27 27 29 29 27 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 43 46 55 48 28 26 29 38 70 41 15 -39 16 27 -67 200 MB DIV 50 77 54 39 32 59 15 34 45 49 55 27 1 10 52 45 58 700-850 TADV 0 4 6 4 11 16 11 17 7 0 5 4 1 12 0 -47 66 LAND (KM) 1774 1863 1954 2031 2096 2163 2202 2223 2216 2192 2124 2027 1695 1257 891 506 23 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.7 20.4 22.4 24.6 27.1 29.9 32.8 35.8 38.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.0 34.8 35.6 36.3 36.9 37.8 38.3 38.5 38.1 37.0 35.1 32.4 28.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 16 17 20 22 23 23 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -20. -28. -35. -41. -44. -46. -49. -54. -58. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -8. -6. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -21. -18. -18. -16. -17. -19. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -14. -21. -31. -41. -54. -63. -68. -64. -63. -60. -61. -64. -69. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.2 34.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 5( 30) 0( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 92 88 81 74 64 54 41 32 27 30 32 35 34 31 26 17 18HR AGO 95 94 90 83 76 66 56 43 34 29 32 34 37 36 33 28 19 12HR AGO 95 92 91 84 77 67 57 44 35 30 33 35 38 37 34 29 20 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 78 68 58 45 36 31 34 36 39 38 35 30 21 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 66 56 43 34 29 32 34 37 36 33 28 19 IN 6HR 95 92 83 77 74 68 58 45 36 31 34 36 39 38 35 30 21 IN 12HR 95 92 88 79 73 69 59 46 37 32 35 37 40 39 36 31 22